The Pricing Gap — U.S. Spirits Market

Actual Revenue 2003–2025

$572.7B

Cumulative nominal

Foregone · CPI-All Scenario

$24.8B

+4.3% of actual earned

Foregone · Food/CPG Scenario

$45.7B

+8.0% of actual earned

Foregone · 2%/yr Scenario

$8.3B

+1.4% of actual earned

Annual Revenue — Actual vs Counterfactual

What total market revenue would have been under each pricing scenario (same volume, elasticity-adjusted)

Actual

CPI-All

Food/CPG

2%/yr

2022–2025 Inflation Window

$10.7B

Foregone revenue in just 4 years under CPI scenario — when 8% general inflation made price increases not just justified but expected by consumers.

CPG Peer Benchmark Gap

+90% vs +29%

Food & beverage peers raised prices 90% over this period. Spirits raised prices 29% (whiskey) and 20% (vodka/rum/gin) — a persistent 60pp underperformance within the same retail aisle.

Minimum Viable Discipline

2% / year

Even half of general inflation — just 2% per year — would have generated $8.3B in additional revenue. A discipline most CPG categories achieve automatically through annual price lists.

Cumulative Foregone Revenue

The compounding cost of pricing inaction — the gap between what was earned and what should have been earned

Annual Revenue Miss by Scenario

Year-by-year delta between counterfactual and actual — showing how the gap accelerated during inflation spikes

CPI-All Gap

Food/CPG Gap

2%/yr Gap

Real Revenue Per Case (2003 Dollars)

The clearest signal of value erosion — what each 9-liter case actually earned in inflation-adjusted purchasing power

Actual real rev/case

2003 baseline ($97.88)